Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.493541 2.655429 2.827793 3.025885 3.248423 3.492084 3.780967
2025-04-06 2.231853 2.446789 2.687442 2.979900 3.330003 3.741439 4.270616
2025-04-13 2.043201 2.280948 2.555788 2.902306 3.335606 3.871356 4.604356
2025-04-20 1.954036 2.216037 2.527555 2.933600 3.462411 4.149240 5.149814
2025-04-27 1.894385 2.178151 2.524040 2.988671 3.617161 4.473206 5.802154
2025-05-04 1.843255 2.144880 2.520663 3.039290 3.765791 4.801287 6.514416
2025-05-11 1.768929 2.076468 2.465837 3.014231 3.803324 4.969105 7.001676
2025-05-18 1.705106 2.017193 2.418065 2.993179 3.841563 5.138422 7.519797
2025-05-25 1.645354 1.959646 2.368449 2.964559 3.863738 5.281930 8.017793
2025-06-01 1.591002 1.906313 2.321080 2.934873 3.879926 5.415019 8.522313
2025-06-08 1.552325 1.871841 2.297213 2.936790 3.943938 5.634757 9.254169
2025-06-15 1.527943 1.855239 2.296723 2.972332 4.063528 5.966668 10.325570
2025-06-22 1.479447 1.804471 2.246675 2.931323 4.056111 6.069948 10.911440
2025-06-29 1.433395 1.755401 2.196908 2.887768 4.040692 6.156255 11.487093
2025-07-06 1.381419 1.696293 2.130249 2.814125 3.967527 6.119866 11.726002
2025-07-13 1.363015 1.683305 2.129621 2.843835 4.076579 6.464868 13.182052
2025-07-20 1.352091 1.680209 2.142960 2.896090 4.230170 6.929134 15.270415
2025-07-27 1.340524 1.675589 2.153539 2.944092 4.380340 7.415272 17.798709
2025-08-03 1.310924 1.643980 2.122127 2.920332 4.391859 7.582603 19.220195
2025-08-10 1.283897 1.615250 2.093949 2.900367 4.408830 7.766285 20.872955
2025-08-17 1.256485 1.585151 2.062563 2.873216 4.409193 7.909032 22.473806
2025-08-24 1.230170 1.555929 2.031511 2.845043 4.405168 8.040510 24.167627
2025-08-31 1.212276 1.538573 2.018187 2.846863 4.462464 8.346466 27.281717